There cannot be a soul across the world who claims to have even an ounce of liberal values who is not holding tight to their lucky rabbit’s foot hoping the American people boot their President out of office come November.
The signs are not good for President Trump. He lags in the polls and faces three great crises – Coronavirus epidemic, the resulting economic crash and the Black Lives Matter protests – with a response that swings between pouring petrol on existing blazes or pretending the problem does not exist at all. Harold Wilson is credited with saying “a week is a long time in politics” so, with the US Presidential election 4 months away, there is plenty of time for events to get much worse or much better for Trump. He could still win legitimately and has many options for shifting public opinion. He could also remain in office via other routes. The amazing thing is that all the options available to Trump he has mentioned in public so whatever he decides to do should not come as a surprise – but almost certainly will!
The Polls
Trump is in a significantly weaker position than he was at this point four years ago. Biden’s average of the polls lead is 9 points (an increase from 5 points in February); better than Hillary Clinton’s position at the same point. Biden has also opened up leads in battleground states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. Trump’s overall approval rating has slumped 39 per cent (source: Matthew J. Goodwin). No President this unpopular has ever gone on to win a second term. His handling of the Coronavirus pandemic is only approved of by 40% of voters. I could go on with dismal figures for Trump but I will not. So what could go wrong? – well, plenty in fact.
Trump’s Crisis
The Coronavirus sits at the top of this. Whereas in the first April peak it was Democrat voting states that were hit, the latest surge is striking at Trump voting areas accounting for 73 per cent of cases on June 28th (Source: Politico). It is not a good look to have your voter base struck down with ill health, dying in significant numbers while local economies are shut down to control spread. How Trump fares come November could depend on how the epidemic looks as the US moves into Winter.
His second crisis is the state of the economy which has been undermined by the epidemic. It is the economy that offers Trump a glimmer of hope with Americans approving of his handling of the economy more than they approve of him as President. If the epidemic abates and the economy begins to recover there could be a dividend for Trump.
His third crisis follows on from the death of George Floyd and the resurgence of the Black Lives Matter movement. Trump has sought to position himself as the law and order candidate but appears to be out of step with American public opinion. Americans feel their country is on the wrong track and increasingly support non-violent protests. Has Trump lost his finger on his country’s pulse?
So, Trumpian optimists might predict that the epidemic will abate, the economy recover and voters turn against street protests. The polls indicate this to be unlikely but, after all, a week is a long time in politics.
Voter Suppression
While there is a legitimate route back to the White House for Trump, there also other options some of which he has hinted at.
As a generalisation poorer people, those from BAME communities, those who work long hours and have extensive family responsibilities, are likely to vote Democrat. Now you would think that in the land of the free and brave, voting would be encouraged but, sadly, over the years the voting rights legislation has been gutted. So, if in Republican held areas you do not want folks voting for Biden, you just close a few polling stations thereby making voting just that bit more difficult.
With fewer voting booths there is likely to be long queues at those that remain. For some losing a day’s pay while standing in a line up is not a viable option so they will just give up. In some parts of the US Republicans pray hard for rain or snow on election day.
As we have learned recently the US police are hardly modelled on Dixon of Dock Green so a strategically placed police car at the top of road to the polling station can be significant disincentive to vote – particularly if you are Black and, therefore, more likely to stopped and searched with, as known from experience, an uncertain outcome.
You would think that in the land of opportunity postal voting would be encouraged – but none of it. Trump has been busily pushing evidence-free conspiracy theories that absentee voting is open to abuse and should be stopped. Inevitably, it is likely to be Democrat voters who would choose this form of voting.
Trump and his supporters have plenty of options for suppressing the vote in Democrat areas.
Start a Conflict
Trump will well know that a tried and tested way to garner support from voters is create a conflict with one of those dark un-American foreign powers. It works – Margaret Thatcher’s premiership was rescued by the Falklands War. It can be a risky strategy but can lever a leader from zero to hero very quickly.
Trump, to say the least, is a world away from mainstream opinion outside of the States on the challenges of Iran, the Israel-Palestine conflict, China, Russia, North Korea plus seems to be on a course to destroy the World Health Organisation and the International Criminal Court. He dislikes the EU and is lukewarm about NATO and hardly enthusiastic about the UN.
All these give him the opportunity to start some form of conflict. It would give him the chance to wave the US flag, pretend that all the US stands for is under threat from those damn foreigners and sail back into the White House on a wave of nationalism.
An opportunity for a “soft” conflict could come from Trump deciding to withdrawal US troops from Germany. The excuse could be NATO’s European countries failing to pay their fair share of the cost of funding their own defence. Sponging off US taxpayers could be a vote winner laced with a bit of anti-EU rhetoric and a squabble with a female leader – from Trump’s point of view what’s not to be liked. Putin would love it too.
More worryingly, Trump could set his sight on a “hard” conflict and Iran would be the obvious target – a country Trump has regularly threatened to “neutralise”. Some threatening noises, troop deployments, military vessels sailing to the Gulf (all shown in glorious technicolour on the US news channels) should do the trick particularly if laced with a buckets of anti-Muslim sentiment.
This is not a risk-free strategy, but Trump has form in this area. Remember he sent troops to the Mexican border to repel an “invasion” of unarmed migrants during the midterm elections. Once the election was over the invading army mysteriously disappeared and the troops returned to barracks.
What About Biden?
Trump recently said he had yet to “start” on Biden – and he is right – he has not really started. Biden has 50 years of public service for his team to trawl through hoping to find mud to chuck at him. Remember Hillary’s e-mails which ran through the last election like a soap opera only to disappear once they had served their purpose? Biden’s age could be an issue as he is older than Trump. He could conjure up a doctor’s certificate saying he is as fit as the proverbial flea and then set all sorts of physical challenges for Biden to meet thereby sowing the seed Biden is not fit for office – ironic really but potentially effective.
So, there is plenty for liberals to worry about. For Trump, all options are available both legitimate and less so. He cares little for the consequences of his actions or the US Constitution and political convention. For him, all that matters is winning. Whatever he does, remember he has probably tweeted about it already. It could be American opinion has shifted and settled and that will see the back of the Trump experiment. Only time will tell - so hang on those rabbits’ feet and avoid walking under ladders.
Comments