"A Popular Government without Popular Information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or perhaps both."
James Madison
I would like to take a moment to thank Boris for standing up and defending my basic human right to go grouse shooting. I really do not know what me and my wealthy mates would have done on those mild Autumn afternoons if we could not go to the moors to blast away at grouse bred not to fly well so I stand a better chance of hitting one. As law abiding citizens, me and my 29 mates will be eagle-eyed on the moor and if we spot seven children feeding ducks at the village pond, well…..we have Priti Patel’s number on speed dial.
The purpose of this blog is to float a conspiracy theory. Now I know I have strong views about such things including calling on Facebook to stop publishing and nurturing them justified on the basis of promoting debate. At least my conspiracy is not as dangerous as promoting anti-vaccination movements, denying climate change or promoting some good old race hatred. My theory is that Boris Johnson actually does want to deliver a No Deal Brexit despite all his words to the contrary.
I suggest that any deal the Government could arrive at would be so thin Johnson would have difficulty selling it to voters. The reason is that all Johnson’s red lines make it problematic that a trade deal of any substance could be negotiated. Instead of dealing with Brexit voters’ sense of disappointment he has come to the conclusion it would be easier to sell No Deal and that process has already started.
Let’s remind ourselves of Johnson’s red lines – no membership of Single Market or Customs Union; no customs border in the North Sea or on the island of Ireland; no freedom of movement of people coming into UK or capital; no jurisdiction from the European Court; complete separation from EU rules and regulations. In a Daily Telegraph article shortly after the Referendum he set out what his demands were and these included frictionless trade, the right to live, work, travel and study in EU countries. The bottom line is Johnson’s demands are inconsistent with his red lines. If he wants frictionless trade, he has to sign up to the Single Market, and most importantly, its rules (the so-called level playing field). When Brexiteers talk about a Canada-plus deal the Canada bit refers to a pretty basic tariff-free trade deal but the plus bit relates to accessing the opportunities offered by the Single Market. The problem is obvious. To deliver on his Daily Telegraph shopping list he will upset hard line Brexiteers. If he delivers on the Brexiteers’ agenda, it would look pretty thin to voters and with certainly no frictionless trade or right to work and live in EU countries.
The chicken has finally come home to roost. It is just not possible to have the cake and eat it and Johnson is unable to deliver the fantasy Brexit sold to voters.
The solution to this quandary is go to for No Deal and blame everybody else. The process of preparing the country for that eventuality has already begun. The start is to blame the EU for not negotiating in good faith. Johnson is already alleging this in public. Michel Barnier will be demonised. No photograph will appear without him wearing a mask and looking bank-robber-like. War will be declared on the EU. The charge will be led by The Sun, Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and Daily Express. All focus will be on English nationalism. Ministers will portray the country as one under threat from Europeans.
The real challenges of a no deal Brexit relate to tariffs being placed on imports and exports with the corresponding consequences for inflation and prices in shops, supply chain disruptions due to border checks and Brexit happening at the time of year when the UK relies on Europe for up to 90% of some staple foods. All this will be drowned out by shrill Ministers making speeches from Union Jack decorated officers. The speeches will be a mixture of European misinformation and disdain laced with calls for a national effort to overcome food shortages and the economic impact of no deal.
The Sun will print with a Union Jack strip across the top of its front page. Stories will be a combination of demonisation of leading EU characters with Brit heroes doing their bit in the face of hardship. Mary Berry will start a BBC series of cook well with less. We will learn how to be imaginative with turnips. There will be a Daily Mail pullout with the words of “We’ll Meet Again”.
The BBC will finally surrender any pretence of independence and becomes the Government’s propaganda mouthpiece. There will be calls in the House of Commons to silence any dissenters not behaving, by their standards, in the national interest. Dissent will be treason.
The BBC will announce a special season of primetime WWII films. Lovers of “The Dam Busters”, “Reach for the Sky” and “Sink the Bismarck” relive long forgotten past glories.
A short list of British 5th columnists will be drawn up by the press. Top of the list will be Gina Miller who will tick two of the boxes – a remainer plus a woman of colour. She will be joined on the list by Keir Starmer, who will face unsubstantiated accusations of secretly negotiating w ith Michel Barnier, Dominic Grieve, every Supreme Court judge, Sadiq Khan and Andrew Adonis. Each will have their private and professional lives crawled over and any evidence of pro-Europe leanings castigated.
Numerous unsubstantiated stories will be floated and promoted in the press. These will include suggesting the only reason the EU ever wanted the UK to join was so that their citizens could use the NHS for nothing and come and live here on benefits. The allegation that we did not really want to leave but, given the UK’s opposition to a United States of Europe, we were driven out by the French, will be cooked up and served on a regular basis.
White, middled-aged and elderly men will form coastal militias whose role will be to look out for foreigners sneaking over to use the NHS for free. They will wear a kind of uniform purchased in the M&S closing down fire sale – mostly different shades of brown. There will be weekly rallies of motor cyclists flying union jacks and uttering threats to all things foreign. They ride bikes made in Japan and Germany.
Weekly flyovers of the remaining Spitfires and Hurricanes are organised to rally the spirits of a flagging nation.
In the real world, panic buying has tailored off as there is nothing left to panic buy. Lorries queue in their hundreds in and around Dover and Folkstone as they seek to enter and leave the UK. John Redwood says the photos of endless waiting lorries are fake. Hospitals and GPs start reporting shortages of drugs which the Government denies. The Government passes legislation seizing all public parks for conversion to allotments. Anne Widdicombe becomes the poster girl for parsnips.
The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic remains open promoting fears of smuggling. Boris Johnson tells the Irish PM that if he wants a border, he can set it up but as far as he is concerned goods can travelling freely between the two countries. The EU starts legal action against the UK and likewise so does the WTO for the UK’s failure to collect tariffs. President Biden (here’s hoping) accuses the UK of a major breach of the Good Friday Agreement and says there can be no question of UK/USA trade deal until Johnson meets his international obligations. In a considered and diplomatic response, Ian Duncan Smith tells the President to “butt out”.
At such perilous times Johnson rushes through Parliament legislation cancelling all elections scheduled in 2021 including that for Mayor of London. Johnson states that Sadiq Khan cannot remain in post as Mayor without a mandate so replaces him with an unelected Commissioner for London who is understood to be Baroness Dido Harding.
The process which began in 2020 of banks transferring considerable funds to Frankfurt gathers pace. The Governor of the Bank of England calls this an act of treachery and says he will do all that is necessary to support the UK economy which he expects to recover all its losses within 10 years. Leading economists do not agree and saying it is likely to be 50 years, if at all, quoting a Minister who had said something similar shortly after the Referendum.
Boris Johnson is now doing nightly broadcasts in which he calls upon British grit, determination, spirit and sense of independence and freedom to collectively rally around to save the country. These are widely lampooned around the world.
Britain becomes the only modern economy in the world not to have a trade deal with another country within 2,000 miles of its borders. Dominic Raab points out the UK has a trade deal with Japan but is quickly shown a map and passed a ruler!
The Government introduces rationing but says there are no shortages, just panic buying created by people exercising their personal independence and not acting collectively. Letters to the Daily Mail condemn Johnson for talking about acting collectively as they see it as back door Socialism.
Above all the din and shouting a few historians are saying the UK is experiencing another Suez moment when it acts beyond its resources and influence in the world and will eventually have to climb down.
……………and so the years drag by with constant promises of things getting better tomorrow but don’t. Claims of independence and sovereignty start to look tarnished as the UK is largely shunned by the rest of world. It turns out the French and Germans didn’t surrender to our demands as they were not so desperate to sell us their champagne and cars after all.
Finally, in 2025 Johnson can delay a General Election no further. Despite a campaign tarnished with conspiracy theories and foreign interference, Keir Starmer emerges triumphant as the nation begs for a competent, ideologically-free government. The nation is exhausted after years of political point scoring and economic decline and watches on as Starmer negotiates a Norway-style agreement with the EU which allows the UK to again join the family of nations. An ageing Nigel Farage says he will start campaigning for a Referendum to leave the new EU relationship.
……….but perhaps my conspiracy theory has simply changed into a fairy story!
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