“The game’s afoot. Follow your spirit, and upon this charge cry ‘God for Harry; England and Saint George!’ - Henry V
It has been over 4 years since the EU Referendum. A lot of water has passed under the bridge of politics in that time. We have had 3 prime ministers, 2 Tory Party leadership elections, two General Elections...and a pandemic. There has been a lot of hot air, marches, votes in Parliament and claim and counter claim. However, for many voters nothing much has changed. Those who believed the Referendum would change little may now think they have been proved right. However, they may shortly be in for a bit of a surprise as we approach, at last, the business end of the Brexit process.
After a wait of over 3 years we may have left the EU, but we immediately moved into a one-year transition period. This ends on 31st December when we will truly control our own borders, make our own laws and have reclaimed our sovereignty or so the Brexiteers will say. These may have been slogans that won the vote but how successful the Government is post-Brexit will depend alone on how voters feel about their individual and family circumstances. As always it will be the economy. I can well imagine a Brexit voter being interviewed in the street and saying what they have now is not what they voted for. Any economic damage caused by Brexit could be camouflaged under the post-pandemic damage to the economy but I have doubts voters will be so nuanced to say Brexit would have been a success if the Coronavirus had not come along.
Even after 4 years I do not know what the economic benefits of Brexit will be. Unless I have missed something, I do not recall a Brexiteer ever setting them out.
I recently watched a Channel4 vox pop of voters in Stoke celebrating the Referendum outcome. One women was almost in tears of joy as she celebrated her sense of freedom, a man was overjoyed at not being told what to do by grey suited men from Belgium anymore, another man was delighted that Iranians and Syrians would no longer be coming to the UK (I must check my map of EU countries again) and, lastly, another woman talked of a new start.
To a Remainer like me this is all nonsense. The EU was not a control on our freedoms, indeed the exact opposite as it defends personal rights and freedoms as a condition of membership, nobody was telling us what to do as the UK was an equal partner and could veto any proposal that was not seen to be in our interests, Iran and Syria are, of course, not European countries and a sense of need for a new start was a concept more under the control of the UK government than the EU. None of this would have washed, of course, as I now realise the Referendum was settled more around voters’ sense of grievance and being victims of economic neglect than it was around the evidence and facts relating to the benefits of EU membership. Given David Cameron’s overconfident leadership, Jeremy Corbyn’s lacklustre support and the inability of the Remain campaign to articulate the benefits of EU membership in a way that would have inspired voters, the campaign was doomed before it left the stables.
The consequences of leaving the EU will soon begin to affect the lives of UK citizens and this may prove to be the acid test of whether voters have got what they think they voted for. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. Brexit enthusiasts now have their blue passports. They may be produced by a French company and printed in Poland but we will not let a bit of detail curb the cheering. Parliament has passed an immigration bill so satisfying one of the people’s priorities – well according to the Tories. The focus will be on allowing in skilled, high earning foreign labour. The barriers will be up to low paid and low skilled migrants. Perhaps levelling up actually means pushing the British unemployed into fruit picking, care home work and van delivery jobs. I am not sure the unemployed of the former industrial towns of the north will see this as levelling up.
Passports
The blue passport is not a symbol of independence and British exceptionalism – the exact opposite in fact. No longer will UK citizens be able to waltz into any EU member country with a quick flash of the passport and then head off to the bar. Instead Brits will have to queue up with those travelling from Africa, the Middle East and Asia to have their passports properly checked and, perhaps, answer some questions about the purpose of the visit. Far be it for me to suggest that some Brexit voters will resent queuing for a passport check with the very people they thought the Brexit vote was meant to keep out of the UK. Some countries that receive lots of visiting Brits (like Spain and Italy) might take pity on us and streamline the process but for sure strolling around Europe unchecked will soon be history for British citizens. As will free access to local health care services on the same basis as locals. If you want to use your mobile phone, then roaming charges will be back.
Trade
If it had not been for the Coronavirus epidemic there would be much more attention being given to the UK’s flailing trade negotiations with Michel Barnier and his team. We would be having exasperated nightly updates from the BBC’s Katya Adler. From what little we do know it appears Boris Johnson is still riding the cake and eat it negotiating strategy. In the Referendum campaign he described getting a trade deal with Europe as easy as they would be desperate to sell us their cars, cheese and champagne. The deal was “oven ready” apparently. It feels to me the UK’s strategy is to secure a tariff free, frictionless deal with the EU without any commitment to the EU’s regulations and standards. In the EU’s mind this would open the way for the UK to flood Europe with poor quality goods and cheap food and drink that does not meet EU standards. In no way will the EU make sacrifices that will allow chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef etc into the Continent thus undermining European farmers.
At present the UK negotiators appear ready to die on the hill of not allowing any EU regulations to apply in the UK. If this is the case the consequence will be a UK firm exporting goods to the EU, being subject to import controls, tariffs, quotas, point of origin certificates, export credit guarantees, import licences, customs declarations and VAT documentation etc, etc.
The lorry being used must comply with EU regulations with the risk of long delays at the EU border for checks with further random checks in transit.
The driver must have a valid driving permit and entry permits for all countries he/she will be passing through plus valid compliance certificates.
All this is, of course, red tape, regulation and bureaucracy. It can only create delay and add costs that consumers will have to bear. Now I remember a time when the Tories were the enemy of red tape and regulation, but no more it would appear. A Tory principle abandoned on the hill of Brexit ideology.
Let’s not forget the Tories plan to recruit thousands of customs officials – yet more red tape and bureaucracy for the public purse to bear.
The most staggering thing is that, for the first time in the history of international trade negotiations, the UK is sitting down with the EU with the explicit intention of agreeing a deal that is worse than the one we currently have.
Lorry Parks
And then there are the lorry parks the Government plans to create so vehicles entering the UK from Europe can be processed. Boris Johnson would not, of course, call them lorry parks but something like customs processing centres where magic apps will speed everything along. Voters in Tory constituencies that will be blessed with these may see matters somewhat differently. Ashford will be an interesting test case with its 10,000-space lorry park – sorry Customs Processing Centre. The local Tory MP has already spoken out.
The Economy
The British Retail Consortium has warned that a no deal Brexit will substantially increase the cost of household staples, ranging from meat to cheese to school uniforms and drinking glasses. The BRC estimates oranges from Spain will cost 12% more, beef from the Republic of Ireland will go up by 48% with cheddar cheese from the same country increasing by 57%.
This will happen because, in place of an agreement, tariffs set by the World Trade Organisation will come into play. The tariff for cars is 10%, confectionary 21% and dairy products 35%.
There is little mileage in pointing this out to Leavers as they will claim it only be an extension of Project Fear and, anyway, the might of the UK will land the best possible deal in our own interests.
Their alternative response will be that we should stop importing and start producing more of our own food and reopen manufacturing to cease dependence on low cost countries like China, Brazil and Cambodia. There is something to be said for reducing food miles, but the UK has not been food self-sufficient for 200 years. Back in the 1820s it was not all Elizabeth Bennet and Fitzwilliam Darcy. Instead food choices were very limited, particularly if you were poor and an orange was as rare as a swallow in January. Much of our food needs are met quickly and cheaply from farms in southern Europe, particularly in the Winter, and to suggest we can again be food self-sufficient is simply ludicrous.
The same arguments apply in respect of replacing imported clothing and manufactured goods with home produced items. There is a niche market for this but to think the mass market satisfied by the likes of Primark can be met at a price consumers can afford is simply out of the question. The infrastructure and staff costs would be a major barrier.
For what it is worth I suspect some kind of trade deal will be agreed with the EU if only to save faces all round but I doubt it will amount to much and could be a pretty thin document. The problem for the UK is that the more frictionless it wants its trade with the EU to be, the more it must accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and the framework of the Customs Union and Single Market. In simple terms, if we want to trade with EU countries on the basis of which they trade with each other, then we must accept the rules that apply to those transactions. At stake here is about 50% of our export market and all the jobs and investment that goes with it.
I also suspect a few trade deals with other countries will be concluded that will do little more than roll over the UK’s existing deal via the EU. Ministers will make more of them than they really deserve.
The key deal will be the one with the US. It seems to me with have chosen to put all our eggs in Donald Trump’s basket in case of a no deal with the EU. Trump has pressurised the UK into not having a deal with China and no doubt other challenging demands are being made. The problem for Johnson’s negotiators is that they have no leverage with the US. With the EU covering our backs it is difficult to know where our red lines might be. The risk is the US could draw them and not us. It could also not be a worse time to be having such negotiations with a Presidential election in 3 months time. Beyond that any deal would need to ratified by the Democrat controlled House of Representatives who has already made it clear they will not agree anything with the UK if the UK, as part of the Brexit process, has not protected the Good Friday Agreement.
In the absence of trade deals with the EU and countries outside WTO tariffs will apply in default.
So with 5 months to go to the true independence day, Boris Johnson and his team have to conclude a trade deal with the EU plus as many other countries around the world as we choose to trade with plus prepare for a no deal Brexit by constructing 12 lorry parks, recruit thousands of customs officers and put in place the necessary bureaucracy……while managing a pandemic.
The sunny uplands lie before us like Bali-ha’i with its glowing white sand and golden sunlight, coconut trees and profuse tropical fruits. The trouble is getting there requires hard negotiating, compromise, the swallowing of egos, the challenging of ideology and with 5 months to go there appears little desire by UK negotiators to be do any of this.
In the end Boris Johnson’s choice might be between brazening out a whole lot of compromises to avoid a no-deal Brexit that could upset the Brexit ultras or brazening out the consequences of a no- deal Brexit that could upset a lot of voters as it would clearly damage the economy.
What voters should do is secure a copy of the Political Declaration that accompanied the EU Withdrawal Agreement. This was the road map agreed by both sides to securing a new relationship between the EU and UK. It is against this that Johnson should be judged. Far be it for me to suggest he agreed to it knowing he could tear it up later just so he could achieve his own declared deadline for leaving the EU.
So, what will the landscape for UK citizens look like come 1st January 2021? Travelling to Europe will be more expensive and frustrating. The right to travel, work, study, live and retire to any EU member country will be gone except for the very wealthy who will still be able to buy a way in as has always been the case. Whatever deal we agree with the EU will be smaller than what we currently have. The economy will shrink with consequences for Government income and public investment. We may have trade deals outside the EU, but these will mainly replace the 70 or so deals we currently enjoy as a member of the Single Market. For many countries we will not be the attractive proposition we once were as the UK would have lost its position as a gateway to Europe. For those countries that we do not have trade deals with tariffs will apply on exports to them and on their imports into the UK. The procession of companies moving their European headquarters out of the UK to the European mainland will continue. The loss of skilled but low paid workers from Europe could have a major impact on the care and agricultural sectors. Putting all our trade eggs in the Donald Trump “America First” basket looks pretty risky.
To me, we appear not to be steering towards Bali-ha’i but a piece of scrubland best used as a lorry park.
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